SAGE Minutes fuel lockdown flames
Interpretation of graphs informs only the already persuaded. The written truth of the SAGE sell-outs proves itself to everyone.
As I wrote of Simon Dolan’s legal challenge to the Lockdown in WORLDS ENDS: Coronavirus, Frankenstein and Other Monsters, Chapter 9 Anarchy in The UK: “This is one of the most important legal documents to have been written this century.”
The release of the SAGE Minutes, under pressure from Simon Dolan’s legal case, has proved these words prophetic.
We now have a clear timeline which supports all that was written in Chapter 3 of WORLDS ENDS: Coronavirus, Frankenstein and Other Monsters .
At that time of writing, all that was available from SAGE was its carefully manipulated selection of pre-April 2020 documents.
However:
if one were aware that all along since 2011, Govt UK had in place a SARS-CoV2 Pandemic Plan.
If one were aware that the 2011 Plan was re-issued and endorsed by Govt UK on 27 February 2020:
If one were aware that the 2011 Govt UK SARS-CoV2 Pandemic Plan was again re-issued and endorsed by Govt UK on 3 March 2020.
If one were aware that the 2011 Govt UK SARS-CoV2 Pandemic Plan was stated in the Govt UK 26 May Plan To Rebuild, as being the plan which Govt UK had been following since Lockdown on 23 March.
Then one could see, as through a glass darkly smudged with the panicked palm-prints of Boris Johnson, the transparent reality.
Within hours, these first firestarters from the published pages of SAGE Minutes gain traction.
Was the Government Really Following “the Science”?
A few weeks ago I linked to an excellent Newsnight report by Hannah Cohen which asked whether the Government really was following “the science”? Now that the Government has released the minutes of the SAGE meetings in the period leading up to the lockdown announcement on March 23rd – this was on Friday as a direct result of Simon Dolan’s lawsuit – we can get closer to answering this question.
The former barrister Paul Chaplin has gone through the minutes in a lengthy blog post and concluded that placing the entire country under virtual house arrest was a political decision and not “based on the science”. His analysis is compelling.
Chaplin finds plenty of evidence in the minutes that various different containment measures were discussed by SAGE, but at no point before March 23rd did the group recommend the quarantining of the whole population. The measures SAGE considered were home isolation of symptomatic individuals, the isolation of everyone in a symptomatic individual’s household for 14 days and the cocooning of those over 70 and those with underlying health conditions – the three measures introduced by the Government on March 16th. But at no point did SAGE discuss anything resembling a full lockdown. Indeed, SAGE noted at a meeting on March 10th that banning public gatherings would have little effect since most viral transmission occurred in confined spaces, such as within households.
The last SAGE meeting before the lockdown was on March 18th where it was noted that the impact of the social distancing measures introduced thus far would not be known for two or three weeks. The attendees did not at that stage know whether those measures would be sufficient to prevent the NHS’s critical care capacity being overwhelmed and in the absence of more data could not offer any advice on whether additional measures – such as closing bars, restaurants and entertainment centres, and limiting use of indoor workplaces – would be necessary. The only further measure SAGE recommended at that meeting was closing schools.
SAGE advises that the measures already announced should have a significant effect, provided compliance rates are good and in line with the assumptions. Additional measures will be needed if compliance rates are low.
Minutes of the 17th SAGE meeting on Covid-19, March 18th 2020
The attendees discussed locking down London but no conclusion was reached. However, they did say that if additional measures were going to be necessary, it would be better to bring them in sooner rather than later. According to the minutes: “If the interventions are required, it would be better to act early.”
In other words, Boris Johnson and his advisors were not following “the science” when they took the decision to lock down the country on March 23rd – they weren’t acting on any specific recommendations by SAGE. Nor can the Government claim this is one of the options that was discussed at SAGE meetings and it was basing its decision, in part, on SAGE’s analysis of the impact of a full lockdown. That option was not discussed at any of the meetings before March 23rd. In this respect, it was a political decision.
